Alpace

-Market Update

Some Stories are Too Good to Put Down! $SPY

March 18th, 2017 11:03

Got Stories ?

I am going to start with our mobile stories today and then move on to my weekly market wrap up. As most of you know by now, we have been posting early stage mobile stock stories, each of which shows you bite-size details of trade ideas as well as trading plans right on your smartphone.

They only work on mobile so you have to click the links on your smartphone to see the stories. We are seeing some really great results and a few not so good ones, of course, but I am happy to share them all with you so here we go.

Himax Technologies Inc. – HIMX

We posted a story on HIMX (click on a mobile device to see the story) on Friday, March 3, 2017 for an entry on Monday, March 6th.

The bite size details represented in this story included three candlestick patterns,

The entry range was set between $7.06 – $7.29 with a stop loss of $6.94.

The stock opened and entered at $7.24 that Monday, 3/6. A target was set for $8.06 based on the position of the 200 day simple moving average. The target was reached this week on Wednesday, March 15 for a gain of 11.40%.

Here is the chart showing the entry and exit. I note the chart continues to look bullish!

Costamare Inc. – CMRE

Another story I’d like to highlight is a story on CMRE (click on a mobile device to see the story).

Costamare is a shipping container company with strong momentum. It was upgraded a few days ago by Zach’s Investment Research and has been given a strong analyst consensus rating. Scan found it on Monday, February 27, long before the upgrades.

The entry range was $6.12 – $6.44 with a stop loss of $5.96.

The stock opened at $6.13 on Tuesday 2/28 and entered immediately.

The story pointed out bullish price action such as

Although the price didn’t go up right away, it didn’t fully reverse or hit its stop either and is now sitting on a whopping profit of 14.43% as of today’s close.

The stock is still heading toward its target of $7.44 which was set based on the position of the 200 day simple moving average.

Here is the chart with the entry marked.

TripAdsvisor – TRIP

Of course, Alpaca’s stories don’t all go the right way like this story for TRIP (click on a mobile device to see the story). Sometimes a stock may not be ready and a pull back can hit a stop loss to exit the trade.

In this case, TRIP had some bullish signals such as

but it didn’t follow through. The entry range was $42.66 – $44.26 with a stop loss of $42.06 and a target of $48.71.  The trade stopped out and took a loss of 4.28%.

Here is that chart with entry and stop loss exit marked.

Risk/Reward

But I would like to point out that if you took all three of these trades, you would still be in a significant winning position as the loss on the loser is much smaller than the gains on the winners.

Stories are set up with a risk/reward ratio that is geared to leave you in profits even when all the stock picks don’t go the right way. That said, TRIP is starting to look good again and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another story on it soon.

Weekly Market Wrap-up

And now on to the market as a whole. SPY continued to consolidate this week ending slightly down from last week. Overall the weekly chart looks strong and the daily looks like a bullish pennant doing a little consolidative action to work off the huge rallies we have been seeing in markets.

Fed Raises Rates

The Fed raised rates on Wednesday by a quarter point and set a goal to reach .75 to 1.00% by the end of the year.

This actually led to another rally in markets as this hike was expected and already well priced in with the sideways action we saw the week before. Janet’s continued dovish tone even while raising rates belies she will be cautious about rate hikes going forward, while maintaining that the economy is growing at a healthy pace.

SPY Ex-dividend date

Today was SPY’s ex-dividend date. Yes, SPY pays a divie, but as such, it was down more than the S&P. As a consequence of this, SPY closed down today by .61% while the S&P closed down only by 0.13% and the index is up week over week.

In other words, the drop in the SPY week over week is not really representative of the market as a whole. It’s only dropped in line with its dividend payout and will correct accordingly to match back up with the S&P.

Quadruple Witching

Today was also quadruple witching day which means that stock options, stock futures, index options and index futures all expired today. That’s a lot of witching!!

While stock options and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire at the same time once per quarter on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.  This is not helpful when correlating price of SPY to the S&P.

After all, SPY is a ticker of options designed to track the performance of the S&P. So today’s drop, in fact this week’s drop, is not only small in and of itself, it’s basically meaningless.

S&P 500

All that said, I am providing a chart of the S&P today rather than the SPY.

I feel it is more indicative of the market as a whole. While the daily chart has a nice bullish pennant on it, I am showing you the weekly chart here so you can see why I feel sentiment overall is still quite bullish.

Find us!

I know you’re wondering where you can find our cool mobile stories so you can try out the trading plans, so if you’d like to be one of our beta testers with early access, simply click this link AlpacaScan Mobile Stories | Alpaca.

You can check out our scan directly at AlpacaScan and keep up with our alerts on Twitter@AlpacaAlertsStocktwits@AlpacaAlerts and Instagram@AlpacaScan.

Weekend time!

Although the ski season out west is still rocking, we have decided to stay home for a couple of weekends.  There are several reasons but the biggest one is the big chemistry project my daughter has due in a couple of weeks as it has been impossible for her to work on it with our busy ski schedule. I am very much looking forward to hitting our local farmer’s market this weekend. It’s been too long! I hope you all have a great weekend and maybe get to a farmer’s market yourselves. Good trading and see you next week everyone!

The author, Danielle Spandau is a seasoned trader/investor and educator also known as The Trading Wife.

IMPORTANT DICLOSURE:

All information and/or opinions contained herein are impersonal, for informational purposes only, and do not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those only of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Alpaca. If you are considering making an investment, you should consult with an investment professional.